The simple fact is, the house always has an advantage in all casino games. However, by implementing a perfect Blackjack Card Counting technique, it is not only possible to deplete the house edge but to turn the tables into the player’s favor. Blackjack Card Counting comes in many forms—from simplistic methods to advanced multi-count techniques.
- A player can acquire a edge of 0.5% to 1% over casinos when counting cards; Players sometimes suffer from losses along with profits; You need a sizeable Bankroll to use the card counting strategy; You must avoid being detected by the casino when counting cards; Card Counting.
- Card counting is the age-old fine skill of tracking the relationship between the high-value and low-value cards in a deck(s) of a blackjack game. Over here, you will find a plethora of well-written articles touching on the subject of card counting, and covering many aspects of it.
- Card counting is the only legal method to reduce the house edge and to feel more confident in the casino.
If you read the right literature, like the famous book Beat the Dealer by Edward O. Thorp, you’re probably aware that some players can count cards well enough to beat blackjack.
Once players learn this they usually quickly learn that it’s somewhat difficult to be good at counting cards. And it’s even more difficult to get away with it at a level where you can turn a decent profit.
Then many players start looking for other games where they might be able to count cards to get an edge.
Blackjack is the most watched game in the casino. The casino owners and personnel know that card counters can hurt them, so they’re always watching for possible counting activity.
The truth is that most card counters aren’t very good and don’t hurt the casino in the long run, but this doesn’t stop the casinos from trying to catch card counters and stop them from playing.
Counting cards isn’t illegal, but the casinos are on private property and they don’t have to let you play. They can ask you to leave or bar you from placing bets at any time.
In a few areas they aren’t technically allowed to bar card counters, but they can run you off in other ways. And even if they don’t run you off, they can make the game unbeatable, even for the best card counters.
What does all of this have to do with baccarat?
When potential card counters start looking around the casino for other games that may offer an advantage when counting they don’t come up with many options.
The one game that looks like it’s possible is baccarat. As you learn in the next section why card counting works you’ll see why baccarat looks like a possibility. But in the section after that you’ll quickly see why counting baccarat is simply a waste of time.
Why Card Counting Works
A deck of card has 52 cards of which we know exactly which cards are included. If we take a single card out, say the ace of diamonds, we know exactly which 51 cards are left.
If you take 50 cards out of the deck and you know which 50 are missing you know what the final two cards are.
Card Counting Edge Over Time Graphs
Mathematical studies and simulations have been completed that determine the exact value of a card being removed from a deck of cards for a game of blackjack.
In blackjack, as more low cards are removed from the deck it leaves more high cards, which is good for the player. The more tens and aces left in the deck in comparison to low cards means the player is more likely to be dealt a blackjack.
A blackjack pays three to two, so it’s makes up a great deal of the player’s return in blackjack. A deck high in cards worth 10 also makes the dealer bust more often because she can’t stand on a 15 or 16.
On the other hand, if a deck is missing more high card than low cards it swings the edge more in the favor of the house.
![Card counting edge over time graphs Card counting edge over time graphs](https://comicbookrealm.com/cover-scan/3cce6892536abb66920ae95f3b65efbd/xl/zenescope-entertainment-inc-grimm-fairy-tales-presents-van-helsing-vs-dracula-issue-1.jpg)
So when a blackjack player counts cards what they’re really doing is keeping a running ratio comparing high cards remaining in the deck to low cards remaining in the deck.
This means you don’t have to remember every card when you count. You simply start with a number, usually zero, and add to it whenever a low card is played and subtract from it whenever a high card is played.
When the count is positive it means the remaining cards have more high cards than low cards and when the count is negative it means the remaining cards have more low cards than high cards.
Of course there’s a little more to being a winning card counter than this, but this is the basic idea.
As it turns out, baccarat is also played with a deck of standard playing cards and the removal of certain cards does change the chances of which cards can still be dealt and this does slightly alter the house edge.
Most blackjack games and almost all baccarat games are dealt from multiple decks, or a shoe.
This doesn’t change the fact that removing certain cards are good or bad for the player, but it does mean that to get an edge you need to be able to see a large percentage of the stack of available cards before you can gain an advantage.
In blackjack, depending on the rules, you often need to consistently be able to play deep into the shoe. The closer to 100% of the shoe you can see the better your chances of beating the game through counting.
The problem is the casinos now this as well and won’t let you see 100% of the shoe before shuffling. It’s rare to be able to play through more than 75 or 80% of a shoe.
The best counters can still gain an advantage in blackjack, but it’s a challenge.
Baccarat games tend to play through the entire shoe or almost all of it, and I seems like it offers a good counting opportunity.
In addition, the casinos don’t watch the baccarat game for counters. They even provide pencils and paper in some casinos so you can track results, etc.
The absence of concern from the casinos is the first big clue that you might not be able to beat baccarat. If the casino doesn’t worry about it then it’s a good sign that it can’t be beat.
Of course the casino isn’t perfect so are they missing something?
Can you beat baccarat by counting?
Why Not to Card Count Baccarat
Under 100% perfect counting conditions the answer to the question at the end of the last section is yes. You can theoretically get an edge against the casino playing baccarat.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the edge is so small and difficult to get that it’s a complete waste of time.
In The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin, an excellent book for potential card counters, he has a small section about counting baccarat. Through his calculations if you find a baccarat game that deals through almost the entire shoe, count cards and only place bets when you have an edge, and make bets of $1,000 when you have the edge, you’re long term profit will be roughly 70 cents per hour.
And the biggest problem beyond only making 70 cents per hour based on $1,000 bets is that counting baccarat isn’t simple. It’s nothing like counting blackjack.
Many popular blackjack counting systems only require you to add or subtract one at a time. A perfect baccarat counting system requires adding and subtracting large and varied number from the count, and to do it perfectly you actually need to keep at least two separate counts perfectly.
And you only make a bet when the count is in your favor, so according to some mathematicians you only place a bet on one out of every 400 hands or more. Even if the casino let you count cards for hours on end they’re probably going to tire of you only making a wager every couple hours.
I’m sorry to disappoint you, but counting baccarat is simply not worth the time or effort. You also have to risk large amounts of money for miniscule returns, which is rarely a good idea.
If you really want to find an alternative to counting blackjack, your best bet is to learn how to count Spanish 21, a derivative of blackjack. It doesn’t have as much heat as blackjack, but the casinos do watch it some.
But you can get a much higher edge playing it if you know how to count than playing baccarat.
Can You Beat Baccarat?
The answer to this is included at the beginning of the last section. But even though you can beat the game by counting I showed you why it’s a waste of time.
But a few players have been able to beat baccarat by using other tactics. But even this is a rare occurrence and if the casino figures out what you’re doing they’ll fight you, going to court if they need to.
The best way to beat baccarat is by using a technique called edge sorting.
A few casinos use playing cards that have an imperfect design on the back. So if you turn some cards one way and other the other way you can tell which group is coming off the top of the deck next.
So if you could sort all of the cards certain ways you can change the house edge enough to play with an advantage.
Many problems exist that make this difficult. The first one is you have to find a casino using cards that make this possible.
The next problem is how are you going to sort the cards? You can’t normally touch all of them, so you end up only being able to sort a percentage of them.
Then if the casino knows what they’re doing they’ll turn parts of the deck during shuffling. This eliminates the ability to sort cards during one shoe and have them stay pointing the proper direction after shuffling.
If you want to learn more about edge sorting baccarat search for the Phil Ivey incident where he and a female accomplice beat a casino for millions doing it. They were able to negotiate a private table and get the casino to let his accomplice deal the cards.
She edge sorted them as she dealt and the casino shuffling technique didn’t turn any of them around so they played with a strong advantage over the house.
The casino eventually figured it out and took Ivey to court. It doesn’t look like he’s going to get to keep his winnings.
The only other possible way to get an advantage, other than cheating, is by shuffle tracking.
Shuffle tracking is a system where you track the cards as they get placed in the discard tray and are able to track where certain cards are through the shuffle.
If this sounds difficult, you’re right.
You actually don’t track individual cards through the shuffle; you track slugs of cards that can be helpful.
To show how this might work let’s look at blackjack again.
If you know a group of 20 cards packed together has three aces and 14 cards valued at 10, you’d bet big when these cards were coming out.
The same thing can possibly give you an advantage playing baccarat, but once again this sounds good but is almost impossible to use.
Many casinos have started using shuffling machines to mix the cards and even tracking a slug through a hand shuffle can be challenging.
Once again, it looks like a method for beating baccarat just isn’t worth the effort.
Conclusion
Card counting works for blackjack and Spanish 21 if you know how to do it and can get away with it. It can even work for baccarat, but as you can see it isn’t worth the effort.
If you’re looking for an edge against the casino you can safely skip baccarat and move on to the next game.
Card counting may be the most famous advantage play (AP) method, but it also provides a low edge to players. Even as a skilled counter, you’re only looking at between a 1% and 1.5% advantage over the house.
With that said, some prospective APs aren’t satisfied with a 1% edge. Instead, they want to pursue a form of advantage gambling that provides much bigger profits.
The problem for beginning APs, though, is that everything beyond card counting is much tougher. You pay for larger edges by dedicating more hours due to fewer lucrative opportunities.
Even if you have aspirations of gaining the biggest possible advantage over casinos, you should definitely start out by counting cards. This guide explains why by comparing card counting to other AP strategies.
How Does Card Counting Work?
Professional gamblers have devised a number of card counting systems over the years. These systems vary based on their difficulty level and the advantage they provide.
If you’re just starting out, you can’t do any better than the Hi-Lo system. This card-counting system provides a nice mixture of simple strategy and a solid edge.
As with any system, you begin by counting every card that comes out of the shoe. Your goal is to assign each card a point value based on its grouping.
Here are the different groupings and card values with the Hi-Lo system:
- 10 through ace (high cards) = -1
- 7 through 9 (neutral) = 0
- 2 through 6 (low cards) = +1
The Hi-Lo is a balanced counting system, meaning your count will be zero at the end of a shoe. Therefore, you must account for the number of decks to get your “true count.”
To do this, you simply need to divide your running count by the estimated number of decks in the shoe. Assuming you have a count of +4 and two decks are left, for example, your true count is +2.
Finally, you need to raise your bets when the count is positive. You can use the following model for deciding when and how much to raise your wages:
- Start by developing a unit size.
- Anywhere from 4x to 6x the minimum bet is a nice unit size (e.g. $25 on $5 table).
- Raise your bet 1 unit (e.g. $5 to $25) each time the count increases by one past +1.
- +2 true count = 2 units ($25 bet)
- +3 true count = 3 units ($50 bet)
- +4 true count = 4 units ($75 bet)
- +5 true count = 5 units ($100 bet)
Increasing your wagers is key to capitalizing when you have an advantage. Meanwhile, you should bet the table minimum whenever your true count is +1 or less.
Deck penetration is one more worthwhile card-counting concept. This term refers to how much of the shoe is dealt before the dealer shuffles. Simply put, you want as much deck penetration as possible. The further you go into the shoe, the more accurate your count will be.
Many casinos differ on the amount of penetration they allow. You generally want to look for casinos or tables that allow at least 75% deck penetration.
You can see that counting cards isn’t overly difficult. Once you thoroughly master the advice above, which shouldn’t take long, you should practice your counting abilities.
Here are a few good ways to do this:
- Deal cards to yourself.
- Use a free online card counting trainer.
- Count cards for fun while playing at live dealer casinos.
- Visit a land-based casino and count off to the side.
- Count while playing low-stakes blackjack without raising your bets.
Other Advantage Play Options
Card counting draws the most publicity among AP methods. But as you’ll see below, there are several other options for making guaranteed money at the casino.
I won’t cover these methods in as much detail as I did with counting. However, I’ll at least give you the basic jest on how these strategies work.
Caribbean Stud Collusion
Caribbean Stud is typically one of the toughest games to beat in the casino. It features a lofty 5.22% house edge even when you use perfect strategy.
But you and a group of players can beat this game by colluding and sharing your hole card information. This strategy will give your team enough information to make better informed bets and gain up to a 2.38% advantage.
The first thing you need when colluding in Caribbean Stud is seven players. You must fill the entire table in order to get an edge. If you only have six or fewer players sitting down, then you’ll be facing a 0.4% house edge or higher.
The next factor you need involves a silent method of sharing how many aces, kings, and matches (cards matching the dealer’s up-card) your team has. These are the most critical cards when deciding if you’ll raise in a hand.
Caribbean Stud collusion is one of the tougher AP strategies to pull off. Plus, it doesn’t result in much more of an advantage than card counting. If you’re still interested, though, you can learn more about it here.
Chasing Bonuses
Most online casinos offer deposit bonuses. Some of these bonuses can provide a long-term advantage when you play things right.
The main aspects that you must look for when seeking profitable bonuses is a combination of the following:
- A bonus that features low playthrough (a.k.a. rollover)
- An offer that doesn’t restrict many games from meeting playthrough
Regarding the first point, you must satisfy rollover before cashing out bonus funds. The lower the rollover, the less you need to risk before officially obtaining your bonus money.
Game restrictions either exclude or increase the playthrough for games with high return to player (RTP). For example, an online casino might increase rollover from 20x to 80x for all slots with 98% RTP or higher.
Here’s an example of what combination you need to profit from a bonus deal:
- A casino offers a 100% match bonus worth up to $200.
- You deposit $200 and, thus, qualify for a $200 bonus.
- Rollover is 30x.
- 200 x 30 = $6,000 must be wagered
- You play a slot with 98% RTP that’s not restricted in any way.
- 6,000 x 0.98 = 5,880
- $5,880 + $200 = $6,080
- You’ll theoretically earn an $80 profit.
I should stress that these are merely theoretical profits. Even with an advantage, you could still lose money while satisfying rollover.
Another problem with chasing bonuses is that only so many opportunities are available. Therefore, you’re not going to win lots of money with this method.
Hole Carding
Most table games feature hole cards, which are dealt face-down. These cards can come in one of three forms:
- Player hole cards – Only you can see the face-down cards dealt to you.
- Dealer hole cards – Nobody except the dealer can see these.
- Community cards – Although these cards can be used by any player at the table, they remain face-down until a certain round.
You’re only supposed to see face-down cards in one of these scenarios. Therefore, you’re acting on incomplete information in many casino table games.
Hole carding provides a chance to see face-down cards and gain more info. This technique involves trying to see hole cards as a dealer pulls them out of the shoe, or during any other opportunity that arises.
The biggest factor that you need to pull off hole carding involves an inept dealer who keeps flashing their face-down card values. You must spend quite a bit of time looking for such a dealer.
Assuming you do find one, though, you stand to gain a huge edge. Mississippi Stud, for example, offers at least a 50% advantage to expert hole carders.
Shuffle Tracking
Shuffle tracking is an added step to card counting. It begins with counting a shoe and continuing to count until the dealer stops to shuffle.
At this point, you must determine which part of the deck is positive and negative. Here’s an example:
![Card Card](https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/images/ties_lose-nosoftdouble.gif)
- The dealer stops to shuffle cards after dealing five out of eight decks.
- You end the shoe with a -3 count.
- This means that the three undealt decks feature a +3 count.
Once you know which part of the shoe features a positive count, you visually track the relevant card clumps. Your goal is to figure out where the positive clumps fall into the shoe. Fun gambling card games. With this information, you can raise your bets whenever the positive clumps come out in the next round
Shuffle tracking is definitely tougher than card counting. It not only requires you to keep an accurate count but also have great visual observation skills.
However, you’ll definitely benefit by adding shuffle tracking to the mix when you gain experience as a counter. You could hold nearly a 7% advantage over the house with this technique.
Why Is Card Counting Best for New APs?
Outside of hunting for bonuses, card counting gives you the smallest edge out of any major AP technique. That said, you’ll be grinding out profits while trying to evade casino detection.
You might see the massive advantages offered through hole carding and shuffle tracking and want to immediately pursue them. However, each of these methods also requires more time and in-depth knowledge.
Card counting, on the other hand, is relatively easy to get started with. If you’ve read through this entire post, you already know the basics.
Furthermore, you don’t have to search for a diamond-in-the-rough dealer like with hole carding. Instead, you’ll find plenty of countable games in major casino destinations.
Of course, you may eventually yearn for bigger edges. But I strongly suggest that you stick with card counting until you feel more comfortable with advantage gambling.
Conclusion
Card Counting Edge
Counting cards isn’t as glamorous as it seems when consider its relatively low advantage. Even if you’re a great counter, you can only look forward to around a 1.5% edge.
Nevertheless, card counting is definitely the best point to launch your AP career. It’s relatively easy to learn and doesn’t require any rare conditions to work.
Blackjack Card Counting Edge
You can use counting as a feeler for whether you truly like advantage gambling. If so, you may branch out into more lucrative gambling pursuits later on.